To separate the effects of the economy from the effects of policies, analysts examine the cyclically adjusted deficit, which removes the effects of the business cycle for a more meaningful look at the state of the deficit. 为区分经济的作用和政策的作用,分析师考察的是剔除了周期性因素的赤字,它消除了经济周期的影响,以便更有意义地观察赤字情况。
US equity prices are also more than twice the level long term cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratios say they should be. 以经周期性调整(CA)的长期市盈率作为衡量标准,美国股市目前的点位也比应有水平高出了一倍以上。
On the cyclically adjusted " Shiller PE "– which uses a10-ye a r average of earnings – the China market is even now almost as expensive as the US stock market was in1929. 以经过周期性调整(CA)的“席勒市盈率”(ShillerPE,使用了10年平均收益)衡量,即便是现在,中国股市也几乎与1929年的美国股市一样昂贵。
The credit squeeze can continue and can get worse : vulnerability abounds and contagion could yet spread further. Equity markets are valued well above their long-run averages relative to cyclically adjusted earnings and the replacement cost of their assets. 信贷危机可能继续,甚至可能恶化:薄弱环节很多,传染范围可能进一步扩大。相对于经过周期性因素调整的收益和资产重置成本,股市估值远高于其长期平均水平。
Based on the cyclically adjusted price / earnings ratio ( Cape ) he helped develop which compares a 10-year average of earnings to current share prices Europe looks attractive. 根据他帮助开发的经周期调整的市盈率(Cape,将10年盈利均值与目前的股价相比),欧洲看上去颇具吸引力。